Golf may be a hard DFS market to manipulate because of the volatility of every person player’s outcome for any given PGA tournament. If one player’s missed cut may change what would have been a GPP winning lineup on DraftKings or Fanduel to a lineup barely in the money.
Outcomes such as this may be frustrating for fantasy golf players, though we have several strategies of golf dfs picks that you can implement to reach the volatility of so many independent things.
When you are a golfer in a field, you can win a tournament, and any golfer in a field will still miss a cut. To the Desert Classic this year, Aaron Wise with Luke List are two of the pricier with most coveted golfers today. Wise being given 3.2% odds to win the tournament, but List given 2.8%, they are relatively top numbers. Adam long having minimum-priced and having 0.2% odds to win the tournament. Several DFS players have not even known about him. Wise and List did not get the cut and long won the whole tournament.
As we don’t expect Long to be the best in any other tournaments this season, this extreme case shows just how big the range of possible outcomes is for a golfer in some given tournament. A good option to manage this reality is to diversify the lineups up and down the costing scale.
When diversifying in golf has two major advantages. Other than perhaps any some sport, you should avoid investing a huge amount in any golfer. It does not matter of value or their perceived play over the field. This assists you to limit the effect a single golfer may do on your lineup portfolio when they don’t get the cut.
Emphasize historic success over the recent success
A lot of golf experts majorly talk about the benefit of a golfer’s form, which is normally like a buzzword for whether a golfer has been hot or cold of late. DFS players do targeting players in the best form, imagining that they may carry their recent win over into the tournament of interest. New outcomes are far too heavily weighted in golf of picks, all in terms of ownership with cost.
Because golf results can be very so volatile in the short run, new data typically have a much weaker predictive power compared to long-term results. Even the top golfers pass through slumps, and according to the severity of the slump, they will usually look at the significant cost drop. Having many of the fields focusing on golfers in good form, you may get in and aim proven golfers at both prices with ownership discount.
Besides the discomfort, you will want to take a golfer who has been missing cuts or just not performing up to their normal standards recently. Around every golfer having strong historical statistics bounces back eventually. We have no rule which says that an ice-cold golfer can’t post a best five finish, or a golfer which is on fire don’t miss a cut. All will happen at a time.
One of the better ways for you to deal with unpredictability is by increasing your sample size. By weighing long-term historical results in a short-term, recent hot streaks, you can be with much confidence to attack the market’s inefficiency.
Take a balanced statistical approach.
DFS players seem to focus heavily on particular statistics if choosing golfers. When you have no injuries or other absences that make value in sports such as football with basketball, factors such as Vegas odds and course fit may become the clearest path for value. The problem is that, as these metrics are statistically important, they are not as mostly similar with value as, for example, a sudden spike in projected snaps to a football player.
You should not fixate on common indicators such as Vegas odds, course fit, with course history. Not only are these numbers not as predictive as required, but also the edge they may otherwise offer is negated by an increase in ownership on the resulting players of interest.
It should be better by now than when going for golf DFS picks at DraftKings. You have to go for those more exciting players. These will typically make you gain more points, even when they do indeed finish lower on the leaderboard to their much steady.